THE Dragons’ hopes of qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Challenge Cup for a third time in four years are hanging by a thread – but there is still a slim chance of sneaking into the last eight.

  • The Rodney Parade region first need to pip Bordeaux-Begles to second spot in Pool One, meaning they must better the Top 14 side’s win from the Stade Chaban-Delmas.

That is no easy task.

The Frenchmen won 36-28 with a bonus point while the Dragons left with nothing to show for their spirited display – that means they must turn the tables in Newport on Saturday, taking five match points and denying their guests anything.

That would leave the teams locked on 16 points and if the Dragons’ margin of victory is more than Bordeaux’s eight from last weekend then they will claim second.

If they win with a bonus-point and by exactly eight points then the runners-up spot behind Newcastle will go to the side that scored most tries in the two matches; it was 5-3 to Bordeaux in France.

If still level then Bordeaux will go through thanks to a superior points difference over the entirity of Pool One.

South Wales Argus:

Should the Dragons claim second place then they must wait for the rest of Saturday’s results to come in.

Gloucester (21 points) and Pau (24) meet on Thursday for Pool Three top spot and a home-quarter-final but the losers are already guaranteed a knockout place.

That leaves the other four groups scrapping for two places.

  • The Dragons would first be keeping an eye on the clash between Brive (12) and Worcester (15) in France.

A Brive bonus-point win, Worcester avoiding defeat or Worcester claiming a pair of bonuses will see them leapfrog the Dragons.

If the Top 14 side win without a bonus then it’s unlikely that their points difference (currently -27) will be enough to climb above the Dragons (currently +7 but it will have to be at least +15 to pip Bordeaux).

If Worcester get a solitary bonus to edge Brive into second then their points difference would leave them behind the Dragons.

  • The Dragons would need Sale (11), second behind Cardiff Blues, to fail to win with a bonus point in Toulouse on Saturday evening. The Sharks’ points difference is currently +15. Lyon are not relevant to the Dragons as they can only get to 15 points.
  • If one of those results fails to come in then the Dragons have one last shot – London Irish failing to win with a bonus at whipping boys Krasny Yar in the afternoon AND Stade Francais failing to beat Edinburgh in the evening kick-off.

The Dragons still have a slight hope – but the hard part will be beating Bordeaux-Begles comprehensively, then it’s in the lap of the rugby gods.

Runners-up key points

  • Dragons have to get to 16 points and stop Bordeaux increasing their tally
  • Gloucester/Pau are already over 16 points.
  • Brive (12)/Worcester (15) fighting for runners-up in Pool Five
  • Sale (11) need to win with a bonus
  • London Irish (11, points difference+8) aiming for a five-point haul in Russia, Stade Francais (13) entertain Edinburgh